if you follow Tottenham Hotspur transfer rumors – and you’re reading this blog, so of course you’re reading – you’ve probably come across a few of them… well, let’s call it “fake” rumors linking local Tottenham star Harry Kane with a move to Bayern MunichMaybe as soon as this summer. These rumors first emerged from the wilds of bat country at the beginning of September, and usually reports of strange “sources say” in Various transport trackers And in the worst English tabloid breach that we (almost) never relate to.
The crux of the rumors is that Bayern will try to lure Kane to move to Munich next summer when Kane enters the final year of his current contract with Tottenham. Tottenham Talks have been slowly going on about a possible extension of Kane’s contract, but nothing appears imminent and Bayern will try to take advantage of that to negotiate a (slight) price cut deal for 30-year-old Kane.
So what has changed today? Nothing really, except that There’s a new report saying the same thing in 90 minutes, which is probably a slight sign of reliability from the Daily Mail (but not that big). Stories like this are almost as inevitable as the tides, especially after the 2021 saga that tied Kane to a move to Manchester Which led to a whole bunch of articles with jokes about motorcycles and pictures of Harry’s head falling. There was even a rumor recently about Todd Bohley wanting to bring Kane to Chelsea!
So is the September story about Kane possibly heading to Bayern Munich common? No. But is it reasonable Common? Well… yes, that might be the case. So we should talk about it, because while this rumor sounds like a background buzz, I have a feeling this might not go away.
First, I want to make it clear that I am not defending Tottenham selling Harry Kane, either to Bayern or elsewhere. But, we must admit there are two primary options for Kane and Tottenham this season – either Spurs offer and Kane accepts a new contract that keeps him at Spurs after 2024, or they don’t. Both seem like reasonable possibilities at this point. There has been a lot of back-to-back chatter about how Kane has been so happy to play under Antonio Conte in the past two seasons, and that he is open to discussing a new contract with Spurs. If Harry decides he wants to stay at Tottenham until the end of his career, he’ll sign a new deal and that’s the end of the story – fast, easy, (relatively) painless. But we haven’t seen much about it yet, and bar more information, we’re quickly leaving solid ground in a swampy spectacle of unsubstantiated rumours.
There is also an open question about the long-term motivation of both Kane and Spurs. Tottenham are definitely heading in the right direction under Conte and this could be the club’s best chance to lift titles in a long time. But Kane is also chasing Jimmy Greaves as Tottenham’s top scorer, and he’s within walking distance of catching Alan Shearer as the Premier League’s top scorer. Greavsie might hunt, but leaving the Premier League would end any chance he has of getting ahead of Shearer. We don’t know how achieving any of his individual or collective goals at Spurs will affect his decision-making. Will he win a cup – or (whispers) League – do you make him more or less likely to leave Spurs? we do not know.
I think no matter if Spurs will decide whether to offer a contract at some point this season, Kane will then decide if he wants to sign him. And neither should happen, Spurs will sell him next summer – although as unpopular a decision as it would be for fans, the club no longer has the clout it had in 2021 and it would be better to sell him while he still commands. More value than letting him leave on a free transfer, likely to another Premier League club, in 2024.
We know there are only a few destinations for Kane if the club decides to sell him. Manchester City is one of them, along with Real Madrid and Barcelona. Critics will remember the likes of Chelsea and Manchester UnitedBut I can’t see the club selling Kane to either of them (or to City, except for exorbitant fees) and I can’t see Kane wanting to go to a club where he’s essentially in the same position he is at Tottenham. It should also be noted that there were no links that Kane admires to Barcelona or Madrid.
This leaves Bayern Munich. Titles are not an issue in Munich, where Bayern have dominated the league since the Obama administration. I have no doubts that Bayern Munich are interested in Harry Kane. Kane’s move in the final year of his contract also fits in with Bayern’s transfer ethos – they don’t make huge signings in the millions often, but they certainly love hanging around the sidelines of a lot of deals at the event. They are able to make a reduced move against a big star. I can see Kane as an extra under almost any coach at Bayern, taking him out of Spurs and at a club that Spurs don’t have to worry about unless he faces them in Champions League.
Furthermore, it would also make sense for Kane (and his brother Charlie) to keep their options open in the short to medium term. It certainly doesn’t hurt them to play on the field, even if Harry wants to stay at Tottenham. The Brothers Kane now has a much larger stake of leverage now that Harry has four years left on his contract, and it’s good and smart for Kane to make sure his options stay open. The plausible outcome of all this is either a new short-term contract with Spurs with a penalty clause low enough to entice a huge club should they call, or a big money move abroad that costs Spurs a spell but leaves them money with which they can reinvest in the team.
And if you’re a Bayern Munich side, why not sow some seeds early and hope they grow into something they can harvest? They have nothing to lose here. The worst case scenario is that Spurs and Kane close him by extending the contract. The best case scenario is that they get the best English striker of the last 30 years to come to Germany for a (ish) transfer fee.
So yes, this rumor is premature. It’s unsourced and a bit silly. but it also reasonableEven if that is not possible.
Losing Harry Kane would be a huge loss. The emotional toll will be even higher. You could make an argument based on financial wisdom that this summer would be a good time to sell Kane whether he’s paying for it or not… And that argument extends to Son Heung-min, who turns 31 in July as well. I’m not ready to make that argument yet, but there is no doubt that Tottenham are making plans for what the club will look like after he’s gone. Hopefully it won’t happen this summer, but I’m becoming more and more convinced that unless Harry commits to his future with a new contract soon, we can’t or shouldn’t rule him out.